Will a non-Chinese commercial launch provider (e.g., SpaceX, Rocket Lab, ULA) conduct a single launch with a payload mass exceeding 100 metric tons before 2027?

100-Ton Payload: Commercial Launch Milestone by 2027

The ability to launch extremely heavy payloads is key to deep-space missions and building large orbital infrastructure. This prediction is that a non-Chinese commercial launch provider will conduct a single launch with a payload mass exceeding 100 metric tons to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) before the end of 2027.

The Starship Factor

This prediction hinges heavily on the development and operational capability of SpaceX’s Starship vehicle. Starship is designed with a stated LEO capacity far exceeding 100 tons (potentially up to 150 tons fully reusable). While early test flights focus on non-destructive outcomes, achieving a 100-ton delivery milestone signifies the rocket's full performance validation.

While other vehicles like ULA's Vulcan or various heavy-lift concepts exist, Starship is the only non-Chinese commercial vehicle currently in active development with the potential to reach this capacity in the 2027 timeframe. Success would radically redefine the economics and feasibility of large-scale orbital and lunar projects, solidifying the commercial sector's dominance in heavy-lift capabilities.